Pre-tourney Rankings
American Athletic
2014-15


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
29 SMU 100.0%   6   26 - 6 15 - 3 26 - 6 15 - 3 +11.5      +5.8 29 +5.8 29 63.1 263 +12.7 25 +12.8 1
55 Cincinnati 77.4%   10   22 - 10 13 - 5 22 - 10 13 - 5 +8.8      +4.4 55 +4.4 55 56.7 342 +8.0 59 +8.9 4
67 Connecticut 7.2%   20 - 14 10 - 8 20 - 14 10 - 8 +7.1      +3.6 67 +3.6 67 61.8 282 +6.4 80 +4.5 5
68 Temple 67.6%   11   23 - 10 13 - 5 23 - 10 13 - 5 +7.1      +3.5 68 +3.5 68 68.0 129 +9.0 49 +9.1 3
74 Tulsa 16.8%   22 - 9 14 - 4 22 - 9 14 - 4 +6.4      +3.2 74 +3.2 74 65.2 198 +8.4 55 +10.7 2
87 Memphis 0.0%   18 - 14 10 - 8 18 - 14 10 - 8 +5.4      +2.7 87 +2.7 87 69.7 93 +3.7 110 +3.8 6
197 Houston 0.0%   13 - 19 4 - 14 13 - 19 4 - 14 -1.8      -0.9 197 -0.9 197 65.2 202 -3.9 236 -6.0 10
206 East Carolina 0.0%   12 - 19 6 - 12 12 - 19 6 - 12 -2.2      -1.1 206 -1.1 206 60.5 307 -2.7 212 -1.9 8
213 Tulane 0.0%   14 - 16 6 - 12 14 - 16 6 - 12 -2.3      -1.2 213 -1.2 213 63.3 259 -0.5 170 -1.3 7
255 South Florida 0.0%   8 - 23 3 - 15 8 - 23 3 - 15 -5.2      -2.6 255 -2.6 255 65.7 182 -5.4 257 -7.7 11
267 Central Florida 0.0%   11 - 18 5 - 13 11 - 18 5 - 13 -5.6      -2.8 267 -2.8 267 66.8 158 -3.4 228 -3.4 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
SMU 1.0 100.0
Cincinnati 3.0 100.0
Connecticut 5.0 100.0
Temple 3.0 100.0
Tulsa 2.0 100.0
Memphis 5.0 100.0
Houston 10.0 100.0
East Carolina 7.0 100.0
Tulane 7.0 100.0
South Florida 11.0 100.0
Central Florida 9.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
SMU 15 - 3 100.0
Cincinnati 13 - 5 100.0
Connecticut 10 - 8 100.0
Temple 13 - 5 100.0
Tulsa 14 - 4 100.0
Memphis 10 - 8 100.0
Houston 4 - 14 100.0
East Carolina 6 - 12 100.0
Tulane 6 - 12 100.0
South Florida 3 - 15 100.0
Central Florida 5 - 13 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
SMU 100.0% 100.0
Cincinnati
Connecticut
Temple
Tulsa
Memphis
Houston
East Carolina
Tulane
South Florida
Central Florida


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
SMU 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 6   0.2 5.4 19.5 35.9 28.9 8.7 1.3 0.0
Cincinnati 77.4% 0.0% 77.4% 10   0.0 2.3 15.8 42.2 16.9 0.2 22.6 77.4%
Connecticut 7.2% 0.0% 7.2% 0.0 2.8 4.3 0.0 92.8 7.2%
Temple 67.6% 0.0% 67.6% 11   0.0 0.3 2.7 18.6 40.4 5.6 32.4 67.6%
Tulsa 16.8% 0.0% 16.8% 0.0 0.0 0.5 7.9 8.4 0.0 83.2 16.8%
Memphis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Houston 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
East Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Tulane 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
South Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Central Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
SMU 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 59.5% 20.6% 6.2% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
Cincinnati 77.4% 3.5% 75.6% 28.8% 5.3% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Connecticut 7.2% 7.0% 3.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 67.6% 26.5% 51.5% 15.1% 2.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 16.8% 15.1% 7.2% 1.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Memphis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.7 4.3 33.8 51.0 10.6 0.4
1st Round 100.0% 2.4 8.9 48.1 39.5 3.4 0.0
2nd Round 78.2% 1.1 21.8 52.7 22.9 2.5 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 27.7% 0.3 72.3 26.0 1.7 0.0
Elite Eight 8.2% 0.1 91.8 8.1 0.1
Final Four 2.2% 0.0 97.8 2.2
Final Game 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1